How Much Weight Can You Lose on CagriSema? Trial Results Explained

In its main obesity trial, CagriSema produced an average weight loss of about 22.7% over 68 weeks, which is among the highest seen for an injectable weight-loss drug, though the exact figure depends on the patient population and how you measure it. In people with type 2 diabetes, the average was lower, around 15.7%. CagriSema is investigational and not FDA approved. Notably, these strong results still fell short of the 25% target the company had signaled, which shaped how the drug was received. Here’s what the trials actually showed.

The Headline Obesity Result

CagriSema’s flagship result comes from the REDEFINE 1 trial in adults with obesity, which reported about 22.7% average weight loss at 68 weeks when participants stayed on treatment as intended. To put that in perspective, that’s roughly a fifth of body weight, and more than half of participants reached a body mass index below the obesity threshold. Breaking it down further, about 60% of participants lost at least 20% of their body weight, and roughly 23% lost at least 30%, a level of weight loss that starts to approach what bariatric surgery achieves.

The Diabetes Result Is Different

Weight loss on CagriSema depends heavily on whether you have type 2 diabetes. The REDEFINE 2 trial, published in the New England Journal of Medicine in 2025, studied CagriSema in adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes and found a lower average weight loss of about 15.7% when participants adhered to treatment. This pattern (less weight loss in people with diabetes) is consistent across the whole class of weight-loss drugs, for reasons that aren’t fully understood but likely involve differences in metabolism.

So the honest answer to “how much weight can you lose” is: it depends on your situation, with people who don’t have diabetes tending to lose more.

The 25% Target and Why It Mattered

Here’s a nuance that got a lot of attention. Before the results came out, company leadership had suggested CagriSema might deliver around 25% weight loss. When the actual figure came in at 22.7%, it was still an excellent result, but the shortfall relative to expectations disappointed investors, and the company’s stock dropped. This is a useful reminder that a drug can produce genuinely impressive weight loss and still be judged against the hype around it. For a patient, 22.7% is a lot of weight, regardless of what analysts expected.

Estimands: Why You See Different Numbers

You may see slightly different figures quoted for CagriSema, and that’s because of how weight loss is measured. The roughly 22.7% figure reflects what happens when people stay on treatment as intended (the trial-product estimand), while a treatment-policy analysis (which counts everyone regardless of whether they stopped) shows a somewhat lower figure, closer to 20%. Neither is wrong; they answer slightly different questions. Consider a hypothetical patient deciding whether CagriSema is worth it: the “as intended” number reflects the potential if they stick with it, while the treatment-policy number reflects real-world averages including people who discontinue.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is CagriSema the most effective weight-loss drug?

It’s among the most effective injectables studied, with about 22.7% average weight loss in its obesity trial. Some investigational drugs (like retatrutide) have shown even higher figures in trials, and tirzepatide (an approved drug) produces substantial loss too. Direct comparisons are limited by differences in trial design.

Why did CagriSema lose weight than expected?

It didn’t lose weight than expected in absolute terms; it produced strong results. It simply came in below the roughly 25% figure company leadership had suggested, landing at about 22.7%. That’s a shortfall against expectations, not a weak result.

Can I get CagriSema to lose weight now?

No. CagriSema is investigational and not FDA approved, available only through clinical trials. TrimRx offers currently available options like compounded semaglutide and tirzepatide and brand GLP-1 medications instead.

To focus on what you can actually start with today, you can explore the options available to you now with a licensed provider.

This information is for educational purposes and is not medical advice. CagriSema is investigational and not FDA approved; details and timelines may change. Consult a healthcare provider before starting any medication. Individual results may vary.